The Loud Talker

I am so tired of hearing about and reading about Iowa and New Hampshire. Iowa is a great state, I’ve had some of the best corn I’ve ever tasted there. I’ve had lots of fun at the Valaire Ballroom in Des Moines. And New Hampshire is a wonderful place as well. But why should America care who voters pick in the Iowa primary? It’s not like they have a decent track record of selecting winners. 

Think about it. Here is a list of the winners from each party over the past 30 years:

Iowa Primary Winners vs. Actual Presidential Candidates

• 1976 – Ford (R, incumbent), Uncommitted (D)
• Ford was unopposed, IA Democrats disliked Carter enough to select “Generic Dem” as the winner. 
• 1980 – Bush (R), Carter (D):
• Carter was unopposed, IA picked Bush over Reagan by 2%. 
• 1984 – Reagan (R, incumbent), Mondale (D)
• Reagan was unopposed, IA picked the eventual Democrat candidate. 
• 1988 – Dole (R), Gephardt (D)
• IA picked Dole, GHWB won. Dukakis was the Democrat nominee.
• 1992 – Bush (R, incumbent), Harkin (D)
• Bush was unopposed. Harkin won 73% if IA, Tsongas 4%, Clinton 3%.
• 1996 – Dole (R), Clinton (D)
• Clinton was unopposed, IA picked Dole over Buchanan by 3%.
• 2000 – GW Bush (R), Gore (D):
• Iowa picked GW Bush, a non-incumbent winner.
• 2004 – GW Bush (R, incumbent), Kerry (D)
• Bush was unopposed.
• 2008 – McCain (R), Obama (D)
• IA chose Huckabee. 

In the past nine elections, when Iowa voters actually had to make a choice (versus selecting the incumbent) got it right once. Now let’s see how the fine folks in New Hampsha’ fared:

New Hampshire Primary Winners vs. Actual Presidential Candidates

• 1976 – Ford (R), Carter (D)
• Ford was unopposed. 
• 1980 – Reagan (R) Carter (D)
• NH correctly picked Reagan. 
• 1984 – Reagan (R) Hart (D)
• Reagan was unopposed. 
• 1988 – GHW Bush (R) Dukakis (D)
• NH correctly picked GHW Bush.
• 1992 – GHW Bush (R) Tsongas (D)
• Bush was unopposed. 
• 1996 – Dole (R) Clinton (D)
• NH picked Buchanan. 
• 2000 – McCain (R) Gore (D)
• GW Bush won. 
• 2004 – GW Bush (R) Kerry (D)
• GW Bush was unopposed.
• 2008 – McCain (R), Obama (D)
• NH picked the eventual candidate. 

New Hampshire did better, it managed to get three of eight correct when have to choose a candidate versus selecting the incumbent.

So I ask anyone willing to listen: Why do we still care about how Iowa and New Hampshire vote in the primaries? The world has changed folks… we’ve got instant news, opinions travel at the speed of light and every candidate’s words, facial expressions and body movements are overanalyzed, critiqued and force fed to the masses. Let’s give the vote back to the people and tell the mainstream media to rethink its coverage priorities.